14211 Avalon Path #503

Rosemount, MN 55068

$300,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,685 sqft · Built 2002 · Townhouse · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,655/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$344
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-170/mo
• Annual: $-2,037/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (11.5% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $266k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#5 in MN, #148 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rosemount Elementary (math 57% / reading 51%, grade C, #352 of 857 statewide, top 41%, 775 students, 27% FRL); Rosemount Middle (math 48% / reading 58%, grade C+, #53 of 258 statewide, top 22%, 1,205 students, 20% FRL); Rosemount Senior High (math 54% / reading 67%, grade C+, #43 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,425 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 404 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $238k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Rosemount — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.