27797 Orchard Dr

Defiance, OH 43512

$95,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $139/mo
• Annual: $1,671/yr
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.28%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($969 rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#448 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Northeastern Local (rural): math 62% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #200 of 656 in OH (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Defiance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Defiance County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.5% in Defiance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.