27797 Orchard Dr · Defiance, OH 43512

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1960

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ranch style home. Attached breezeway and 1 car garage. Full basement, not finished. Tinora School District.

Key facts

• Ranch style home
• Full basement
• Attached breezeway

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• ATTACHED BREEZEWAY
• FULL BASEMENT
• TINORA SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($969 rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.5% in Defiance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#448 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Northeastern Local (rural): math 62% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #200 of 656 in OH (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Defiance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Defiance County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.28%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-6,531
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,715
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43512

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,064/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $793

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $95,000 Under Contract 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,273 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$209/yr (+$17/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,064
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$930
• − Management: −$930
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $145
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35
• After-tax cash flow: $1,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northeastern Local
• NCES district ID: 3904672
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,761
• Composite: 55.82/100
• National rank: #1207
• State rank: #200 of 656 in OH

Livability — Defiance

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #7316

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Defiance · 37,898 people
• City population: 27,894
• Population (ZIP): 27,894
• Household income: $72,082
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 7.6

Population outlook (Defiance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,051 people
• By 2030: 36,013 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 33,583 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 31,309 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 26,980 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 23,416 · -36.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Defiance

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+36.4 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.33%
• Current HPI: 210.2352
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $95,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,064 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.