9319 Victoria Cir

Tacna, AZ 85352

$109,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,145/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $151/mo
• Annual: $1,818/yr
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.96%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $109k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#277 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mohawk Valley Elementary District (4503) (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #211 of 501 in AZ (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $109k implies a 990% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.