2721 Barkey Spgs

Castroville, TX 78245-1879

$285,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 263 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,780/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$341
• HOA: −$54
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-483/mo
• Annual: $-5,799/yr
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.27%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (37.6% below list).
• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $178k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 14900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.9% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.