2721 Barkey Spgs · Castroville, TX 78245-1879

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 263 Days on market

Built 2019 5,880 sqft lot $164/sqft · 20% below area Est $354k · 20% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't WAIT to build!!! Seller will assist with buyers mortgage rate buy down! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-story home in the beautiful Ladera subdivision is like-new and ready for immediate move-in. Featuring an open floor plan, the gorgeous kitchen is equipped with gas cooking, stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a large island that overlooks the living and dining areas. The primary bedroom features a wall of windows and bath ensuite and enormous master closet. Split secondary bedrooms are spacious and bright. Bring your Clients TODAY!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quartz countertops
• Gas cooking

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• GAS COOKING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (37.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (37.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.9% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask is 14900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,956 (37.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.27%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,396
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -19.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2744 Barkey Spgs	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,727 (-0%)	1mo	$327,500	$190	91
2420 Barkey Spgs	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-8%)	0mo	$359,900	$226	75
2663 Vistablue Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,858 (+7%)	1mo	$359,440	$193	74
2654 Suncadia Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+14%)	2mo	$452,900	$228	61
3622 Orkney Wheel	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-6%)	1mo	$271,999	$166	60
2622 Vistablue Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,950 (+12%)	4mo	$414,900	$213	59
3607 Orkney Wheel	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+10%)	0mo	$281,999	$148	56
3619 Orkney Wheel	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+10%)	1mo	$267,999	$141	55
3626 Orkney Wheel	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+10%)	1mo	$264,999	$139	53
3642 Orkney Wheel	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+10%)	1mo	$284,999	$150	52
3623 Barnes Brk	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+10%)	2mo	$268,999	$141	52
3711 Barnes Brk	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,904 (+10%)	3mo	$285,999	$150	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $3,532
• Equity at exit: $128,148

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $55,722
• Equity at exit: $197,492

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78245-1879

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,661/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,391

Max offer price $199,635

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-322	-5% $-403	+0% $-483	+5% $-564	+10% $-645
Rent	-10% $-624	-5% $-554	+0% $-483	+5% $-413	+10% $-343
Rate	-1.0pp $-340	-0.5pp $-411	base $-483	+0.5pp $-557	+1.0pp $-632

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2721 Barkey Spgs San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,900	$1.09	14d	1	0.04mi
3614 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,548	$1.19	16d	1	0.57mi
3651 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	25d	1	0.63mi
3650 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,457	$1.29	0d	1	0.63mi
14360 W Grosenbacher Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$1,994	$2.05	0d	20	0.72mi
3833 Millbrook Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,497	$1.21	23d	1	0.81mi
14103 Chemtou Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$2,000	$1.25	25d	1	0.85mi
3919 Gristmill Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,545	$1.05	25d	1	1.03mi
287 Bailey Blf San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2193	$2,099	$0.96	6d	1	1.22mi
14690 Potranco Rd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$2,179	$2.02	0d	47	1.28mi
14625 Potranco Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$1,915	$1.91	0d	66	1.32mi
222 Amy Aly San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$1,650	$0.98	45d	1	1.34mi
14522 Landon Rdg San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$1,499	$1.49	14d	10	1.46mi
213 Stefan Est San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1242	$1,425	$1.15	6d	1	1.49mi
266 Stefan Est San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1249	$1,295	$1.04	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,000 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $285,000 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $285,000 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $285,000 Active 257 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $285,000 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-04-10
   price $285,000 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   Don't WAIT to build!!! Seller will assist with buyers mortgage rate buy down! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-story home in the beautiful Ladera subdivision is like-new and ready for immediate move-in. Featuring an open floor plan, the gorgeous kitchen is equipped with gas cooking, stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a large island that overlooks the living and dining areas. The primary bedroom features a wall of windows and bath ensuite and enormous master closet. Split secondary bedrooms are spacious and bright. Bring your Clients TODAY!

8. 2026-03-14
   listed $1,900
9. 2026-01-28
   price $299,000 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   Don't WAIT to build!!! Seller will assist with buyers mortgage rate buy down! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-story home in the beautiful Ladera subdivision is like-new and ready for immediate move-in. Featuring an open floor plan, the gorgeous kitchen is equipped with gas cooking, stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a large island that overlooks the living and dining areas. The primary bedroom features a wall of windows and bath ensuite and enormous master closet. Split secondary bedrooms are spacious and bright. Bring your Clients TODAY!

10. 2025-11-13
    price $298,900 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Don't WAIT to build!!! Seller will assist with buyers mortgage rate buy down! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-story home in the beautiful Ladera subdivision is like-new and ready for immediate move-in. Featuring an open floor plan, the gorgeous kitchen is equipped with gas cooking, stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a large island that overlooks the living and dining areas. The primary bedroom features a wall of windows and bath ensuite and enormous master closet. Split secondary bedrooms are spacious and bright. Bring your Clients TODAY!

11. 2025-11-07
    status Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Don't WAIT to build!!! Seller will assist with buyers mortgage rate buy down! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-story home in the beautiful Ladera subdivision is like-new and ready for immediate move-in. Featuring an open floor plan, the gorgeous kitchen is equipped with gas cooking, stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a large island that overlooks the living and dining areas. The primary bedroom features a wall of windows and bath ensuite and enormous master closet. Split secondary bedrooms are spacious and bright. Bring your Clients TODAY!

12. 2025-11-06
    status Active
13. 2025-11-05
    historical 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Don't WAIT to build!!! Seller will assist with buyers mortgage rate buy down! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-story home in the beautiful Ladera subdivision is like-new and ready for immediate move-in. Featuring an open floor plan, the gorgeous kitchen is equipped with gas cooking, stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a large island that overlooks the living and dining areas. The primary bedroom features a wall of windows and bath ensuite and enormous master closet. Split secondary bedrooms are spacious and bright. Bring your Clients TODAY!

14. 2025-10-09
    price $299,900 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Don't WAIT to build!!! Seller will assist with buyers mortgage rate buy down! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-story home in the beautiful Ladera subdivision is like-new and ready for immediate move-in. Featuring an open floor plan, the gorgeous kitchen is equipped with gas cooking, stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a large island that overlooks the living and dining areas. The primary bedroom features a wall of windows and bath ensuite and enormous master closet. Split secondary bedrooms are spacious and bright. Bring your Clients TODAY!

15. 2025-09-30
    historical
16. 2025-09-15
    listed $324,900 New 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Don't WAIT to build!!! Seller will assist with buyers mortgage rate buy down! This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-story home in the beautiful Ladera subdivision is like-new and ready for immediate move-in. Featuring an open floor plan, the gorgeous kitchen is equipped with gas cooking, stainless steel appliances, quartz countertops, and a large island that overlooks the living and dining areas. The primary bedroom features a wall of windows and bath ensuite and enormous master closet. Split secondary bedrooms are spacious and bright. Bring your Clients TODAY!

17. 2025-07-02
    status Back on Market
18. 2025-07-02
    historical
19. 2025-07-01
    historical
20. 2025-04-29
    price $337,500
21. 2025-03-25
    price $339,999
22. 2025-01-28
    historical $1,995
23. 2024-12-22
    price $339,900
24. 2024-12-06
    price $1,995
25. 2024-11-23
    price $349,900
26. 2024-10-21
    price $355,900
27. 2024-10-09
    listed $364,999 New
28. 2024-09-24
    price $2,000
29. 2024-07-16
    price $2,100
30. 2024-06-15
    price $2,150
31. 2024-05-30
    listed $2,195
32. 2024-05-30
    historical $2,195
33. 2024-05-24
    listed $2,195
34. 2020-03-13
    soldstatus Sold
35. 2020-02-03
    status Pending
36. 2020-02-03
    status Pending
37. 2020-01-14
    price $259,900
38. 2020-01-14
    price $265,900
39. 2019-11-14
    listed $259,900 Active
40. 2019-11-09
    price $259,900
41. 2019-10-03
    price $269,900
42. 2019-08-26
    listed $274,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,661 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,216 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,554/yr (+$213/mo · 96.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,661
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$11,052
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,652
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.7% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $285,000 LERA
• 2026-03-14 Listed for Rent $1,900 SABOR
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $299,000 LERA
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $298,900 LERA
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-11-06 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-11-05 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $299,900 LERA
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-09-15 Listed $324,900 LERA
• 2025-07-02 Relisted — LERA
• 2025-07-02 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $337,500 LERA
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $339,999 LERA
• 2025-01-28 Rental Removed $1,995 SABOR
• 2024-12-22 Price Changed $339,900 LERA
• 2024-12-06 Price Changed $1,995 SABOR
• 2024-11-23 Price Changed $349,900 LERA
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $355,900 LERA
• 2024-10-09 Listed $364,999 LERA
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $2,000 SABOR
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $2,100 SABOR
• 2024-06-15 Price Changed $2,150 SABOR
• 2024-05-30 Listed for Rent $2,195 SABOR
• 2024-05-30 Rental Removed $2,195 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-24 Listed for Rent $2,195 APPFOLIO
• 2020-03-13 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2020-02-03 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2020-02-03 Pending — LERA
• 2020-01-14 Price Changed $259,900 CTXMLS
• 2020-01-14 Price Changed $265,900 CTXMLS
• 2019-11-14 Listed $259,900 CTXMLS
• 2019-11-09 Price Changed $259,900 LERA
• 2019-10-03 Price Changed $269,900 LERA
• 2019-08-26 Listed $274,900 LERA

Property tax history

+23.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,661 · -59.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.