3306 Gary Ln

The Woodlands, TX 77380

$360,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 490 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$526
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-884/mo
• Annual: $-10,609/yr
• Cap rate: 3.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.53%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $100,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-884 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (43.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (45.9% below list).
• It's been on market 490 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $360k implies a 385% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 490 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?