3306 Gary Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77380

$360,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 490 Days on market

Built 1972 8,433 sqft lot $262/sqft · 96% above area Est $358k · at est. $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ALL the Work is Done in this Unique Home Nestled on the Edge of The Woodlands! Fresh interior paint! Kitchen open to breakfast room and den. Kitchen with stainless appliances, including new refrigerator. Primary bedroom is on the first floor. Primary bathroom updated separate tub and shower. Upstairs w/two 12x10 landing areas. Large secondary bedrooms up. Covered back patio. Outdoor stone kitchen with stainless steel grill. Minutes from The Woodlands Entertainment and Shopping! Easy Access to I45, Hardy Toll, and Grand Parkway.

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• 8,433 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• KITCHEN OPEN TO BREAKFAST ROOM
• PRIMARY BATHROOM UPDATED
• OUTDOOR STONE KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-884 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (43.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (45.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.6%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 490 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $360k implies a 385% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,604 (45.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 490 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.53%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,474
• List price: $360,000
• Delta: 0.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3314 Kentwood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,423 (+4%)	3mo	$230,000	$162	83
3314 Shadowcrest Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,452 (+6%)	3mo	$255,000	$176	80
3523 Willie Way	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-1%)	4mo	$239,000	$175	75
3314 Hickory Hollow Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,342 (-2%)	6mo	$245,000	$183	73
3223 Kentwood Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (+11%)	4mo	$249,900	$164	72
3514 Valerie Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+6%)	2mo	$219,000	$150	67
3327 Valerie Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (+12%)	1mo	$200,000	$130	67
3310 Forest Glen St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (+6%)	6mo	$199,000	$137	62
18 Bitterwood Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (+2%)	6mo	$384,880	$276	58
3531 Willie Way	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (+12%)	2mo	$219,999	$144	58
55 Summer Crest Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,195 (-13%)	0mo	$259,900	$217	52
3302 Rustling Pines St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,462 (+6%)	5mo	$219,900	$150	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-120,359
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -80.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.98×
• Total profit: $-199,401
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77380

• Rents YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$376 /mo · $4,507/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-884

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,065

Max offer price $203,818

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-680	-5% $-782	+0% $-884	+5% $-986	+10% $-1,088
Rent	-10% $-1,038	-5% $-961	+0% $-884	+5% $-807	+10% $-730
Rate	-1.0pp $-703	-0.5pp $-793	base $-884	+0.5pp $-977	+1.0pp $-1,072

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3318 Kentwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,800	$1.45	14d	1	0.05mi
3302 Long Shadows St Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,895	$1.14	4d	1	0.16mi
3419 Shadowcrest Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,775	$1.33	24d	1	0.19mi
3451 Tangle Brush Dr Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	825	$1,483	$1.80	44d	1	0.39mi
3607 Dawnwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,846	$1.18	14d	1	0.43mi
2500 S Millbend Dr Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,544	$2.39	1d	34	1.21mi
27 N Circlewood Gln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	44d	1	1.32mi
11923 S Red Cedar Cir Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,011	$1.17	14d	1	1.33mi
2109 Sawdust Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$1,945	$1.77	2d	19	1.38mi
1941 Sawdust Rd Spring, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.5	1227	$3,875	$3.16	2d	134	1.45mi
2115 Sawdust Rd The Woodlands, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,850	$1.25	44d	1	1.45mi
333 Holly Creek Ct The Woodlands, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 490 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 489 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 488 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 487 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 485 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,000 Active 481 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,000 Active 480 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $360,000 Active 479 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $360,000 Active 476 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,000 Active 475 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,000 Active 474 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,000 Active 473 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,000 Active 472 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    status Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    ALL the Work is Done in this Unique Home Nestled on the Edge of The Woodlands! Fresh interior paint! Kitchen open to breakfast room and den. Kitchen with stainless appliances, including new refrigerator. Primary bedroom is on the first floor. Primary bathroom updated separate tub and shower. Upstairs w/two 12x10 landing areas. Large secondary bedrooms up. Covered back patio. Outdoor stone kitchen with stainless steel grill. Minutes from The Woodlands Entertainment and Shopping! Easy Access to I45, Hardy Toll, and Grand Parkway.

15. 2026-03-09
    status Pending 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    ALL the Work is Done in this Unique Home Nestled on the Edge of The Woodlands! Fresh interior paint! Kitchen open to breakfast room and den. Kitchen with stainless appliances, including new refrigerator. Primary bedroom is on the first floor. Primary bathroom updated separate tub and shower. Upstairs w/two 12x10 landing areas. Large secondary bedrooms up. Covered back patio. Outdoor stone kitchen with stainless steel grill. Minutes from The Woodlands Entertainment and Shopping! Easy Access to I45, Hardy Toll, and Grand Parkway.

16. 2026-03-06
    status Pending 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    ALL the Work is Done in this Unique Home Nestled on the Edge of The Woodlands! Fresh interior paint! Kitchen open to breakfast room and den. Kitchen with stainless appliances, including new refrigerator. Primary bedroom is on the first floor. Primary bathroom updated separate tub and shower. Upstairs w/two 12x10 landing areas. Large secondary bedrooms up. Covered back patio. Outdoor stone kitchen with stainless steel grill. Minutes from The Woodlands Entertainment and Shopping! Easy Access to I45, Hardy Toll, and Grand Parkway.

17. 2025-07-22
    price $360,000 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    ALL the Work is Done in this Unique Home Nestled on the Edge of The Woodlands! Fresh interior paint! Kitchen open to breakfast room and den. Kitchen with stainless appliances, including new refrigerator. Primary bedroom is on the first floor. Primary bathroom updated separate tub and shower. Upstairs w/two 12x10 landing areas. Large secondary bedrooms up. Covered back patio. Outdoor stone kitchen with stainless steel grill. Minutes from The Woodlands Entertainment and Shopping! Easy Access to I45, Hardy Toll, and Grand Parkway.

18. 2025-01-25
    status Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    ALL the Work is Done in this Unique Home Nestled on the Edge of The Woodlands! Fresh interior paint! Kitchen open to breakfast room and den. Kitchen with stainless appliances, including new refrigerator. Primary bedroom is on the first floor. Primary bathroom updated separate tub and shower. Upstairs w/two 12x10 landing areas. Large secondary bedrooms up. Covered back patio. Outdoor stone kitchen with stainless steel grill. Minutes from The Woodlands Entertainment and Shopping! Easy Access to I45, Hardy Toll, and Grand Parkway.

19. 2025-01-21
    status Option Pending 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    ALL the Work is Done in this Unique Home Nestled on the Edge of The Woodlands! Fresh interior paint! Kitchen open to breakfast room and den. Kitchen with stainless appliances, including new refrigerator. Primary bedroom is on the first floor. Primary bathroom updated separate tub and shower. Upstairs w/two 12x10 landing areas. Large secondary bedrooms up. Covered back patio. Outdoor stone kitchen with stainless steel grill. Minutes from The Woodlands Entertainment and Shopping! Easy Access to I45, Hardy Toll, and Grand Parkway.

20. 2025-01-15
    listed $379,900 Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    ALL the Work is Done in this Unique Home Nestled on the Edge of The Woodlands! Fresh interior paint! Kitchen open to breakfast room and den. Kitchen with stainless appliances, including new refrigerator. Primary bedroom is on the first floor. Primary bathroom updated separate tub and shower. Upstairs w/two 12x10 landing areas. Large secondary bedrooms up. Covered back patio. Outdoor stone kitchen with stainless steel grill. Minutes from The Woodlands Entertainment and Shopping! Easy Access to I45, Hardy Toll, and Grand Parkway.

21. 1996-10-24
    soldstatus $74,214
22. 1995-12-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,507 · $376/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,588 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,081/yr (+$173/mo · 46.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$4,507
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$17,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,182
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,369
• Household income: $88,562
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2100.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 7% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.49%
• Current HPI: 260.9503
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+385.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-01-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Listed $379,900 HARMLS
• 1996-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $74,214 Public Records
• 1995-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,507 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.