12447 Rose Dr

Blair, NE 68008

$12,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1975 · Manufactured · Active · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,010/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$63
• Tax + insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $720/mo
• Annual: $8,642/yr
• Cap rate: 78.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 257.19%
• DSCR: 12.44
• 1% rule: 8.42%
• Cash to close: $3,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $12k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $720 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $12k).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $11k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $83 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $360 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#25 in NE, #1,668 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Blair Community Schools (town): math 55% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #46 of 111 in NE (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Gerald Otte Blair Middle Sch (math 62% / reading 55%, grade B, #21 of 128 statewide, top 17%, 506 students, 26% FRL); Blair High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #107 of 261 statewide, top 52%, 710 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 78.3% vs local median 2.2% in Blair — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.