12447 Rose Dr · Blair, NE 68008

$12,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1975 $11/sqft · 82% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy easy living in this area just South of Blair on Hwy 133. This has everything you need to settle in and enjoy with appliances included it doesn't get any easier. Added space with storage shed included for all your storage necessities. Make this priced right home yours today!!

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Built 1975
• Listed 136 days

Tags

• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $720 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $11k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 78.3% vs local median 2.2% in Blair — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#25 in NE, #1,668 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Blair Community Schools (town): math 55% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #46 of 111 in NE (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Gerald Otte Blair Middle Sch (math 62% / reading 55%, grade B, #21 of 128 statewide, top 17%, 506 students, 26% FRL); Blair High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #107 of 261 statewide, top 52%, 710 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $83 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $360 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $10,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 78.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 257.19%
• DSCR: 12.44
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,226
• List price: $12,000
• Delta: -82.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12465 Ann Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+9%)	1mo	$78,000	$67	82
12480 Ann Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	960 (-10%)	5mo	$49,000	$51	78
12460 Ann Dr #39	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+14%)	10mo	$75,000	$62	66
12351 Earl Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+14%)	14mo	$75,000	$62	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.08×
• Total profit: $43,933
• Equity at exit: $1,789

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 29.98×
• Total profit: $97,365
• Equity at exit: $1,038

Cash invested: $3,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68008

• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,010 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$63
• Tax from tax record: −$10 /mo · $121/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $720

Break-even live

Break-even rent $99

Max offer price $12,000

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $727	-5% $724	+0% $720	+5% $717	+10% $713
Rent	-10% $640	-5% $680	+0% $720	+5% $760	+10% $800
Rate	-1.0pp $726	-0.5pp $723	base $720	+0.5pp $717	+1.0pp $714

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,000
• Closing costs: $360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $12,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $12,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $12,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $12,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $12,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $12,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $12,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $12,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $12,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $12,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $12,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $12,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $12,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $12,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $12,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-02-06
    listed $12,000 New 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Enjoy easy living in this area just South of Blair on Hwy 133. This has everything you need to settle in and enjoy with appliances included it doesn't get any easier. Added space with storage shed included for all your storage necessities. Make this priced right home yours today!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $121 · $10/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $208 · $17/mo
• Expected delta: +$87/yr (+$7/mo · 71.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$672
• − Property taxes: −$121
• − Insurance: −$60
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$970
• − Management: −$970
• − Depreciation: −$349
• Taxable income: $8,982
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,156
• After-tax cash flow: $6,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blair Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 3104100
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $62,205
• Composite: 46.47/100
• National rank: #2439
• State rank: #46 of 111 in NE

Livability — Blair

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #1668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,906

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,361 people
• By 2030: 20,293 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 19,861 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 19,080 · -6.3%
• By 2075: 17,987 · -11.7%
• By 2100: 16,240 · -20.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.3pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+40.3 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.43%
• Current HPI: 207.5425
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $12,000 GPRMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $121 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.