Willow 1872 S Plan

Lago Vista, TX 78645

$300,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,601/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,161
• Tax + insurance: −$687
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-793/mo
• Annual: $-9,516/yr
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.25%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $115,385

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-793 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1451 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.4% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.