Willow 1872 S Plan · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-5 bedroom homes with lake access and Hill Country views at Lakeside at Tessera in Lago Vista, TX. Trails, parks, and more. Priced from the upper $400s.

Key facts

• Hill country views
• Trails
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• HILL COUNTRY VIEWS
• TRAILS
• PARKS

🏗️ New construction. The $300,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $412,397.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-705 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.2% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1100 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.33%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $412,397
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -27.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22404 Red Sage Cv	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+5%)	12mo	$589,495	$305	77
22310 Lago Lookout Ln Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	2,016 (+9%)	12mo	$505,596	$251	73
8508 Pine Muhly Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (+9%)	4mo	$509,950	$254	71
8520 Red Bottle Brush Rd	0.09mi	3/3.0	2,068 (+12%)	5mo	$475,000	$230	68
22400 Red Sage Cv	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,990 (+8%)	13mo	$655,451	$329	64
8017 Shining Flor Run	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,743 (-6%)	3mo	$369,900	$212	53
8011 Shining Flor Run	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-9%)	7mo	$359,900	$214	52
8120 Royal Mint Cv	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,990 (+8%)	6mo	$359,900	$181	46
8013 Shining Flor Run	0.57mi	3/3.5	2,078 (+13%)	3mo	$369,900	$178	44
8004 Shining Flor Run	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-9%)	13mo	$389,900	$232	41
8001 Shining Flor Ln	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,713 (-7%)	13mo	$399,900	$233	40
8100 Purple Aster Pass	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-14%)	5mo	$330,000	$209	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-111,759
• Equity at exit: $61,490

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-155,216
• Equity at exit: $35,657

Cash invested: $115,471 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1100
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,715 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,163
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$515 /mo · $6,186/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $-705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,608

Max offer price $310,343

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-420	-5% $-563	+0% $-705	+5% $-848	+10% $-990
Rent	-10% $-920	-5% $-813	+0% $-705	+5% $-598	+10% $-491
Rate	-1.0pp $-498	-0.5pp $-600	base $-705	+0.5pp $-812	+1.0pp $-921

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,099
• Closing costs: $12,372
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22419 Red Sage Cv Meadowlakes, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,800	$1.35	45d	1	0.12mi
22813 Agave Grove Dr Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,925	$1.18	5d	1	0.76mi
7609 Turnback Ledge Trl Lago Vista, TX	4.0	3.0	2443	$2,990	$1.22	3d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-01-07
   listed $300,000 Active 153-char remark

   Show marketing remark (153 chars)

   3-5 bedroom homes with lake access and Hill Country views at Lakeside at Tessera in Lago Vista, TX. Trails, parks, and more. Priced from the upper $400s.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,101
• − Property taxes: −$6,186
• − Insurance: −$2,062
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,606
• − Management: −$2,606
• − Depreciation: −$11,997
• Taxable loss: −$15,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,835
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It has a good exterior and interior, and potential for value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lago Vista, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $300,000 Zillow