1400 Meredith Ave #81

Gustine, CA 95322

$74,999B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,483/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $719/mo
• Annual: $8,629/yr
• Cap rate: 17.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.09%
• DSCR: 2.83
• 1% rule: 1.98%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $719 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#321 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gustine Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,180 of 1,400 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gustine Elementary (544 students, 81% FRL); Gustine Middle (405 students, 78% FRL); Gustine High (586 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.