3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,301 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 166 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,468/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$311
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$308
Net cashflow
$-68/mo
Annual
$-819/yr
Cap rate
5.82%
Cash-on-cash
-1.67%
DSCR
0.93
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-819/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (6.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (16.1% below list).
It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $147k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Union Hill ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #814 of 1,141 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Sharon A Richardson El (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 111 students, 78% FRL); Union Hill H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 143 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 54% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: Exterior siding
— Weathered and possibly peeling
Minor: Roof
— May have some minor damage
CashFlowRE · CFR-5PTAFW09ZQSPFJ
· Data 17 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29