262 Cr 3522 Cir

Orange Grove, TX 78372

$185,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,285/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-109/mo
• Annual: $-1,311/yr
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (30.6% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#235 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Orange Grove ISD (rural): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #196 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Orange Grove Pri (443 students, 64% FRL); Orange Grove J H (math 41% / reading 46%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 396 students, 62% FRL); Orange Grove H S (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 558 students, 60% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Jim Wells County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jim Wells County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.