23326 Forbes Rd

Sprague River, OR 97639

$169,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1977 · Other · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,383/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $98/mo
• Annual: $1,178/yr
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.48%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (18.6% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Klamath County SD (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 58 in OR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bonanza Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #392 of 412 statewide, top 96%, 233 students, 73% FRL); Bonanza Junior/Senior High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #115 of 143 statewide, top 82%, 221 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 59% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Klamath County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Klamath County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.