23326 Forbes Rd · Sprague River, OR 97639

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Other public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1977 5.78 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity galore! Situated on 5 acres of flat, usable land, this property includes a private well and a new septic system. A metal-frame building offers excellent potential as a greenhouse or large storage space. With plenty of space and privacy, this is a great opportunity to create value through updates and improvements. Enjoy the freedom of country living with room to expand and make it your own. Energy Trust of Oregon may offer up to $16,000 in reimbursements for replacing the manufactured home, creating an opportunity for instant equity in a new build.

Key facts

• Private well
• New septic system
• Additional adu

Tags

• 5 ACRES OF USABLE LAND
• PRIVATE WELL
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• ADDITIONAL ADU
• REMODELED METAL TRAILER
• MULTIPLE LIVING OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Klamath County SD (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 58 in OR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Klamath County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Klamath County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,322 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.48%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $23,110
• Equity at exit: $72,651

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $77,857
• Equity at exit: $109,137

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97639

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $394/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,259

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $146	+0% $98	+5% $50	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $44	+0% $98	+5% $153	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $141	base $98	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $169,900 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $169,900 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-04-03
   price $169,900 565-char remark

   Show marketing remark (565 chars)

   Opportunity galore! Situated on 5 acres of flat, usable land, this property includes a private well and a new septic system. A metal-frame building offers excellent potential as a greenhouse or large storage space. With plenty of space and privacy, this is a great opportunity to create value through updates and improvements. Enjoy the freedom of country living with room to expand and make it your own. Energy Trust of Oregon may offer up to $16,000 in reimbursements for replacing the manufactured home, creating an opportunity for instant equity in a new build.

9. 2026-01-27
   listed $175,000 Active 565-char remark

   Show marketing remark (565 chars)

   Opportunity galore! Situated on 5 acres of flat, usable land, this property includes a private well and a new septic system. A metal-frame building offers excellent potential as a greenhouse or large storage space. With plenty of space and privacy, this is a great opportunity to create value through updates and improvements. Enjoy the freedom of country living with room to expand and make it your own. Energy Trust of Oregon may offer up to $16,000 in reimbursements for replacing the manufactured home, creating an opportunity for instant equity in a new build.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $394 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,648 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,254/yr (+$105/mo · 318.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥90°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$394
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$1,760
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$422
• After-tax cash flow: $1,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klamath County SD
• NCES district ID: 4107020
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,906
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7593
• State rank: #46 of 58 in OR

Livability — Sprague River

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9

Population outlook (Klamath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,870 people
• By 2030: 62,279 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 58,891 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 56,207 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 51,239 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 46,526 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Klamath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.9) · D 27.9% · R 69.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.9 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 102.6475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $169,900 MLSCO
• 2026-01-27 Listed $175,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $394 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.