2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
950 sqft ·
Built 1970
· Condo
· Active
· 154 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,109/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,699
Tax + insurance
−$303
HOA
−$481
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,073
Net cashflow
$1,553/mo
Annual
$18,640/yr
Cap rate
12.05%
Cash-on-cash
20.55%
DSCR
1.91
1% rule
1.58%
Cash to close
$90,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $324k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $324k).
It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $285k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 614 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $75k; list at $324k implies a 332% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $5,109/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($131k/yr) (locally 333% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5Q1FFD5VC17ZPE
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29