16 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,592 sqft ·
Built 1920
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 126 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$9,596/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,098
Tax + insurance
−$667
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,015
Net cashflow
$4,817/mo
Annual
$57,798/yr
Cap rate
20.74%
Cash-on-cash
51.61%
DSCR
3.30
1% rule
2.40%
Cash to close
$112,000
Investor read
This is a 4 × 4-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $400k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($58k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $400k).
It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $352k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Sherman El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 528 students, 99% FRL); Marshall Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 607 students, 97% FRL); Northside H S (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,168 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 609 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $9,596/mo this rent would consume 138% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 994% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: fence
— Damaged and overgrown
Major: landscaping
— Overgrown vegetation
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