1315 Ruger St

Alamo, TX 78537

$154,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,302/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax + insurance: −$467
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-246/mo
• Annual: $-2,953/yr
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $43,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (28.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (15.4% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#916 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Alamo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.