1315 Ruger St · Alamo, TX 78537

$154,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2010 0.51 ac lot $97/sqft · at area comps Est $160k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property sits on an oversized lot and offers a rare combination of space, a private pool, and extensive concrete parking areas. The home has a functional layout and offers excellent potential for updating and personalization. Additional exterior structures provide flexibility for storage, workshop use, or other needs. It is located just minutes from Expressway 83, offering convenient access for commuting and travel. Property sold "as-is". Buyer and/or buyer's agent responsible for verifying all pertinent information deemed relevant by the prospective buyer, including but not limited to square footage, acreage, utilities, taxes, zoning, permitting, condition, school zones, HOAs, etc. FINAL CALL FOR OFFERS!!! All offers due 4/28/2026 by 5:00 PM Central

Key facts

• Private pool
• Convenient access
• Exterior structures

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• PRIVATE POOL
• EXTENSIVE CONCRETE PARKING
• EXTERIOR STRUCTURES
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-246 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (28.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Alamo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#916 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, schools D, crime F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 325 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,531 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,757
• List price: $154,000
• Delta: -3.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $68,349
• Equity at exit: $138,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.96×
• Total profit: $213,899
• Equity at exit: $299,188

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78537

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,042/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,614

Max offer price $110,531

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-159	-5% $-202	+0% $-246	+5% $-290	+10% $-333
Rent	-10% $-349	-5% $-298	+0% $-246	+5% $-195	+10% $-143
Rate	-1.0pp $-169	-0.5pp $-207	base $-246	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 775-char remark

   Show marketing remark (775 chars)

   This property sits on an oversized lot and offers a rare combination of space, a private pool, and extensive concrete parking areas. The home has a functional layout and offers excellent potential for updating and personalization. Additional exterior structures provide flexibility for storage, workshop use, or other needs. It is located just minutes from Expressway 83, offering convenient access for commuting and travel. Property sold "as-is". Buyer and/or buyer's agent responsible for verifying all pertinent information deemed relevant by the prospective buyer, including but not limited to square footage, acreage, utilities, taxes, zoning, permitting, condition, school zones, HOAs, etc. FINAL CALL FOR OFFERS!!! All offers due 4/28/2026 by 5:00 PM Central

2. 2026-04-15
   listed $154,000 Active 775-char remark

   Show marketing remark (775 chars)

   This property sits on an oversized lot and offers a rare combination of space, a private pool, and extensive concrete parking areas. The home has a functional layout and offers excellent potential for updating and personalization. Additional exterior structures provide flexibility for storage, workshop use, or other needs. It is located just minutes from Expressway 83, offering convenient access for commuting and travel. Property sold "as-is". Buyer and/or buyer's agent responsible for verifying all pertinent information deemed relevant by the prospective buyer, including but not limited to square footage, acreage, utilities, taxes, zoning, permitting, condition, school zones, HOAs, etc. FINAL CALL FOR OFFERS!!! All offers due 4/28/2026 by 5:00 PM Central

3. 2022-04-12
   soldstatus
4. 2015-12-16
   soldstatus
5. 2011-11-04
   soldstatus
6. 2010-05-26
   soldstatus
7. 2006-03-17
   soldstatus
8. 2002-09-18
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,042 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,042 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$4,042
• − Insurance: −$1,568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable loss: −$5,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,341
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Donna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $27,330
• Composite: 11.16/100
• National rank: #9728
• State rank: #821 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alamo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #916
• US rank: #16356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 34,370
• Population (ZIP): 51,346

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 49% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.30%
• Current HPI: 243.3933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $154,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,042 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.