648 Downstream Ct

Aiken, SC 29801

$265,990D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,274/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-203/mo
• Annual: $-2,435/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $80,366

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $266k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-203 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Aiken 01 (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #36 of 80 in SC (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Graniteville Elementary (math 27%, 377 students, 100% FRL); Leavelle Mccampbell Middle (math 19% / reading 32%, grade F, #162 of 229 statewide, top 71%, 650 students, 55% FRL); Midland Valley High (math 31% / reading 83%, grade C, #120 of 196 statewide, top 64%, 1,477 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 54% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 687 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,500 units permitted in Aiken County in 2024 (1,023 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Aiken County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Aiken — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,274/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?