648 Downstream Ct

Aiken, SC 29801

$269,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,254/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,718
• Tax + insurance: −$546
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-499/mo
• Annual: $-5,993/yr
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.53%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $91,728

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-499 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Aiken 01 (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #36 of 80 in SC (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Graniteville Elementary (math 27%, 377 students, 100% FRL); Leavelle Mccampbell Middle (math 19% / reading 32%, grade F, #162 of 229 statewide, top 71%, 650 students, 55% FRL); Midland Valley High (math 31% / reading 83%, grade C, #120 of 196 statewide, top 64%, 1,477 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 54% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 521 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,500 units permitted in Aiken County in 2024 (1,023 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Aiken County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,254/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1260% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.