648 Downstream Ct · Aiken, SC 29801

$269,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,712 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Move In READY!! * The Jackson Plan from our Liberty Series is where style meets functionality, offering a spacious design perfect for growing households. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,600 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space. As you enter, you'll find a main-level bedroom with a walk-in closet and a full bathroom - ideal for guests. Continue down the hall to the dining area, which sits perfectly between the well-appointed kitchen and the inviting family room, creating an ideal space for gathering and entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite is your private retreat, complete with a walk-in closet and an en suite bathroom. The

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Rivers Crossing
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $195 (about $16.25/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction; Two levels; Built by National HomeCorp; Slab foundation
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Patio; Level, landscaped lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total of 9 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $327,600.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-499 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#93 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Aiken 01 (suburban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #36 of 80 in SC (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Graniteville Elementary (math 27%, 377 students, 100% FRL); Leavelle Mccampbell Middle (math 19% / reading 32%, grade F, #162 of 229 statewide, top 71%, 650 students, 55% FRL); Midland Valley High (math 31% / reading 83%, grade C, #120 of 196 statewide, top 64%, 1,477 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 54% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 521 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,500 units permitted in Aiken County in 2024 (1,023 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,254/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 1260% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Aiken County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,390 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.53%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
698 Shumard Oak Pl NW	0.43mi	5/2.5	2,576 (-1%)	6mo	$319,900	$124	72
5938 Cobalt Fls Bnd	0.17mi	5/3.0	2,334 (-10%)	7mo	$278,990	$120	69
7182 Foggy River Dr	0.24mi	5/2.5	2,459 (-5%)	12mo	$311,400	$127	68
438 Narrow Bridge Ct	0.14mi	5/2.5	2,230 (-14%)	2mo	$279,900	$126	66
438 Narrow Bridge Ct	0.14mi	5/2.5	2,230 (-14%)	2mo	$279,900	$126	66
7044 Mongolian Oak Dr NW	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,574 (-1%)	13mo	$325,000	$126	64
210 NW Shingle Oak Garden Gdn	0.48mi	5/3.0	2,433 (-6%)	7mo	$303,968	$125	61
9178 Wafer Ash Bnd NW	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,574 (-1%)	14mo	$319,779	$124	57
220 NW Shingle Oak Garden Gdn	0.49mi	5/3.0	2,273 (-13%)	1mo	$279,990	$123	55
9027 Wafer Ash Bnd NW	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,341 (-10%)	14mo	$334,900	$143	44
9212 Wafer Ash Bnd NW	0.46mi	5/3.0	2,225 (-14%)	13mo	$319,900	$144	43
421 Tasmanian Oak Aly NW	0.44mi	5/3.0	2,225 (-14%)	15mo	$322,105	$145	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-80,080
• Equity at exit: $48,846

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-90,105
• Equity at exit: $28,325

Cash invested: $91,728 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29801

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 521
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,254 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,718
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,914/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,886

Max offer price $255,338

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,900
• Closing costs: $9,828
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
844 Silent Barge Cv Aiken, SC	4.0	2.5	1763	$1,899	$1.08	23d	1	0.14mi
7034 Foggy River Dr Aiken, SC	5.0	2.0	2459	$2,375	$0.97	23d	1	0.17mi
7113 Foggy River Dr Aiken, SC	4.0	2.5	2172	$2,035	$0.94	23d	1	0.20mi
7259 Foggy River Dr Aiken, SC	4.0	2.0	2157	$2,045	$0.95	14d	1	0.24mi
755 Teague St NW Aiken, SC	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,200	$1.10	14d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,990 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,990 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,990 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,990 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $269,990 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-05-22
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2026-05-18
    listed $269,990 Active
13. 2026-05-09
    price $270,990
14. 2026-03-12
    price $284,990
15. 2026-03-05
    price $314,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,351
• − Property taxes: −$4,914
• − Insurance: −$1,638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,164
• − Management: −$2,164
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$9,530
• Taxable loss: −$11,906
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,857
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home features a modern design with a spacious layout, well-maintained exterior, and updated interiors. It offers excellent potential for both resale and rental value with minor improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aiken 01
• NCES district ID: 4500720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,081
• Composite: 31.91/100
• National rank: #5857
• State rank: #36 of 80 in SC

Livability — Aiken

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #10443

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Aiken County · 116,534 people
• City population: 71,807
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 31,108
• Household income: $59,573
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1260.0

Population outlook (Aiken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 178,003 people
• By 2030: 182,876 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 189,970 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 193,840 · +8.9%
• By 2075: 199,453 · +12.1%
• By 2100: 192,403 · +8.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Aiken

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.9) · D 36.4% · R 62.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.9 2020: R+22.7 2016: R+27.5 2012: R+26.0 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.52%
• Current HPI: 173.7944
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.06%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Contingent — AMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $269,990 AMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $270,990 AMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $284,990 AMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $314,990 AMLS