164 Frank Hitchcock Rd

Cairo, NY 12413

$399,000D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,704 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,735/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$617
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-1,338/mo
• Annual: $-16,057/yr
• Cap rate: 2.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.37%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (59.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (56.5% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (59.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#755 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $399k implies a 299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 2.9% in Cairo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.