164 Frank Hitchcock Rd · Cairo, NY 12413

$399,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1990 2.50 ac lot $148/sqft · 26% below area Est $536k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you enjoy Skiing, Hiking, Golf, Hunting or anything to do with the Great Outdoors you'll love the location of this home. Set back from the road and set up as a Mother/Daughter with over 2,700 sq. ft there's plenty of room for Everyone, including Guests! The upper level of this High-Ranch has 3 Bedrooms and 2 Full Baths which includes a Primary Suite with Walk-In Closet. The recently renovated lower level offers an additional 2 Bedrooms with a Full Bath, Living Area, Den and a Full second Kitchen! There's a large rear deck overlooking the backyard, a fire pit for smores and a large Shed for your outdoor tools, toys and maybe some additional living space. Windham & Hunter Mountains are less than a 30 min drive, Thunderhart Golf Course less than 10 minutes. If you're looking for a larger parcel the neighboring 19.9 acre lot with a Pond is available for sale also! This property is certainly worth a look!

Key facts

• Fire pit
• Large shed
• Large rear deck

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED LOWER LEVEL
• LARGE REAR DECK
• FIRE PIT
• LARGE SHED
• NEIGHBORING LOT WITH POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (59.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (56.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (59.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 2.9% in Cairo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#755 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $399k implies a 299% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $162,627 (59.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.37%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 19.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $535,705
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -25.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Pine St	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,672 (-1%)	8mo	$550,000	$206	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $132,081
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $455,967
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12413

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 19.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$450 /mo · $5,403/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-1,338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,429

Max offer price $162,627

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,112	-5% $-1,225	+0% $-1,338	+5% $-1,451	+10% $-1,564
Rent	-10% $-1,475	-5% $-1,407	+0% $-1,338	+5% $-1,270	+10% $-1,201
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,137	-0.5pp $-1,237	base $-1,338	+0.5pp $-1,441	+1.0pp $-1,547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $399,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $450,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $450,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    listed $450,000 Active 925-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    If you enjoy Skiing, Hiking, Golf, Hunting or anything to do with the Great Outdoors you'll love the location of this home. Set back from the road and set up as a Mother/Daughter with over 2,700 sq.ft there's plenty of room for Everyone, including Guests! The upper level of this High-Ranch has 3 Bedrooms and 2 Full Baths which includes a Primary Suite with Walk-In Closet. The recently renovated lower level offers an additional 2 Bedrooms with a Full Bath, Living Area, Den and a Full second Kitchen! There's a large rear deck overlooking the backyard, a fire pit for smores and a large Shed for your outdoor tools, toys and maybe some additional living space. Windham & Hunter Mountains are less than a 30 min drive, Thunderhart Golf Course less than 10 minutes. If you're looking for a larger parcel the neighboring 19.9 acre lot with a Pond is available for sale also! This property is certainly worth a look!

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $450,000 Active 926-char remark

    Show marketing remark (926 chars)

    If you enjoy Skiing, Hiking, Golf, Hunting or anything to do with the Great Outdoors you'll love the location of this home. Set back from the road and set up as a Mother/Daughter with over 2,700 sq.ft there's plenty of room for Everyone, including Guests! The upper level of this High-Ranch has 3 Bedrooms and 2 Full Baths which includes a Primary Suite with Walk-In Closet. The recently renovated lower level offers an additional 2 Bedrooms with a Full Bath, Living Area, Den and a Full second Kitchen! There's a large rear deck overlooking the backyard, a fire pit for smores and a large Shed for your outdoor tools, toys and maybe some additional living space. Windham & Hunter Mountains are less than a 30 min drive, Thunderhart Golf Course less than 10 minutes. If you're looking for a larger parcel the neighboring 19.9 acre lot with a Pond is available for sale also! This property is certainly worth a look!

19. 2019-08-09
    soldstatus $100,000
20. 2015-04-10
    historical
21. 2014-04-25
    listed $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,403 · $450/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,073 · $506/mo
• Expected delta: +$670/yr (+$56/mo · 12.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,403
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$23,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,727
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cairo

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #755
• US rank: #14433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cairo, NY
• City population: 3,406
• Population (ZIP): 3,406

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 140.58%
• Current HPI: 406.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+354.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $450,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-10 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2014-04-25 Listed $99,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,403 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.