12126 Centralia

Livonia, MI 48239

$220,000C

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,982 sqft · Built 1941 · SingleFamily · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,343/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $430/mo
• Annual: $5,164/yr
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.38%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#116 in MI, #2,784 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, health & safety D, commute F.
• South Redford School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #455 of 540 in MI (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 14 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $189k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.9% in Livonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.