656 Main Ave

Erwin, TN 37650

$88,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Built 1927 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,551/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $642/mo
• Annual: $7,700/yr
• Cap rate: 15.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.25%
• DSCR: 2.39
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $24,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Unicoi County (town): math 25% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #88 of 139 in TN (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rock Creek Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 197 students, 0% FRL); Unicoi Co Middle School (math 26% / reading 22%, grade F, #160 of 333 statewide, top 48%, 446 students, 0% FRL); Unicoi Co High School (math 8% / reading 34%, grade F, #174 of 332 statewide, top 52%, 713 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Unicoi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Unicoi County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $88k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 3.5% in Erwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.