656 Main Ave · Erwin, TN 37650

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1927 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PENDING PRIOR TO LIST - Situated on Main Street, this promising fixer-upper unveils a world of potential. Boasting three bedrooms and two baths, it offers ample space for a growing family or creative redesign. The basement presents an opportunity for expansion or a versatile living area. A separate dining room exudes character, ideal for gatherings and cherished meals. Adjacent, a sunroom bathes in natural light, perfect for relaxation or cultivating indoor greenery. While in need of restoration, the house exudes an undeniable charm, with original features awaiting revival. Its prime location ensures convenience, placing amenities and community at your doorstep. With vision and effort, this Main Street abode can transform into a cherished family haven, combining history with modern comfort.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.5% in Erwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Unicoi County (town): math 25% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #88 of 139 in TN (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rock Creek Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 197 students, 0% FRL); Unicoi Co Middle School (math 26% / reading 22%, grade F, #160 of 333 statewide, top 48%, 446 students, 0% FRL); Unicoi Co High School (math 8% / reading 34%, grade F, #174 of 332 statewide, top 52%, 713 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Unicoi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Unicoi County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $90k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.02%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
401 Mohawk Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,710 (+1%)	10mo	$100,000	$58	70
904 Mountainview Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,700 (0%)	14mo	$404,000	$238	67
720 Holly Ave Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,914 (+13%)	5mo	$255,000	$133	64
229 1st St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-8%)	4mo	$240,000	$153	63
315 9th St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,788 (+5%)	5mo	$185,000	$103	58
910 Elm Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,887 (+11%)	13mo	$360,000	$191	57
310 Lee Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,587 (-7%)	7mo	$73,897	$47	50
632 Galax Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,842 (+8%)	11mo	$200,000	$109	47
1012 Mountainview Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-15%)	2mo	$283,000	$195	46
312 Lee Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-12%)	7mo	$122,133	$82	37
235 Mohawk Dr	0.75mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,486 (-13%)	2mo	$285,900	$192	31
300 & 302 Railroad St	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,888 (+11%)	13mo	$190,000	$101	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $25,568
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $73,985
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37650

• Home prices YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,551 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,025/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $753

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $681	-5% $656	+0% $630	+5% $605	+10% $579
Rent	-10% $508	-5% $569	+0% $630	+5% $692	+10% $753
Rate	-1.0pp $676	-0.5pp $653	base $630	+0.5pp $607	+1.0pp $583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 422-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $90,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-05-01
   listed $90,000
10. 2026-05-01
    historical
11. 2023-12-11
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    PENDING PRIOR TO LIST - Situated on Main Street, this promising fixer-upper unveils a world of potential. Boasting three bedrooms and two baths, it offers ample space for a growing family or creative redesign. The basement presents an opportunity for expansion or a versatile living area. A separate dining room exudes character, ideal for gatherings and cherished meals. Adjacent, a sunroom bathes in natural light, perfect for relaxation or cultivating indoor greenery. While in need of restoration, the house exudes an undeniable charm, with original features awaiting revival. Its prime location ensures convenience, placing amenities and community at your doorstep. With vision and effort, this Main Street abode can transform into a cherished family haven, combining history with modern comfort.

12. 2023-11-09
    listed Active Under Contract 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    PENDING PRIOR TO LIST - Situated on Main Street, this promising fixer-upper unveils a world of potential. Boasting three bedrooms and two baths, it offers ample space for a growing family or creative redesign. The basement presents an opportunity for expansion or a versatile living area. A separate dining room exudes character, ideal for gatherings and cherished meals. Adjacent, a sunroom bathes in natural light, perfect for relaxation or cultivating indoor greenery. While in need of restoration, the house exudes an undeniable charm, with original features awaiting revival. Its prime location ensures convenience, placing amenities and community at your doorstep. With vision and effort, this Main Street abode can transform into a cherished family haven, combining history with modern comfort.

13. 2023-11-09
    listed $132,500 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    PENDING PRIOR TO LIST - Situated on Main Street, this promising fixer-upper unveils a world of potential. Boasting three bedrooms and two baths, it offers ample space for a growing family or creative redesign. The basement presents an opportunity for expansion or a versatile living area. A separate dining room exudes character, ideal for gatherings and cherished meals. Adjacent, a sunroom bathes in natural light, perfect for relaxation or cultivating indoor greenery. While in need of restoration, the house exudes an undeniable charm, with original features awaiting revival. Its prime location ensures convenience, placing amenities and community at your doorstep. With vision and effort, this Main Street abode can transform into a cherished family haven, combining history with modern comfort.

14. 1990-10-18
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥97°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,025
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $6,498
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,560
• After-tax cash flow: $6,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Unicoi County
• NCES district ID: 4704230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 21.08/100
• National rank: #8443
• State rank: #88 of 139 in TN

Livability — Erwin

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erwin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 13,109

Population outlook (Unicoi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,083 people
• By 2030: 16,570 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 15,389 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 14,270 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 12,302 · -28.0%
• By 2100: 10,812 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Unicoi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.0) · D 18.5% · R 80.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -40.2pp · 2024: -62.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.0 2020: R+60.0 2016: R+61.5 2012: R+44.1 2008: R+40.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.18%
• Current HPI: 290.1171
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+91.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $90,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-12-11 Sold (MLS) $35,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-11-09 Listed — TVRMLS
• 2023-11-09 Listed $132,500 TVRMLS
• 1990-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,025 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.