138 Davis Ave

Waterford, NY 12188

$399,000C-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,721 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,213/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$867
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$885
• Net cashflow: $369/mo
• Annual: $4,427/yr
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.96%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $184/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in NY, #4,586 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Waterford-Halfmoon Union Free School District (rural): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #322 of 755 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Waterford-Halfmoon Elementary School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 402 students, 45% FRL); Waterford-Halfmoon Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 44%, grade C-, #934 of 1,100 statewide, top 86%, 336 students, 36% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $399k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At $4,213/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 129% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.