138 Davis Ave · Waterford, NY 12188

$399,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,721 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1890 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

This is a terrific investment property or owner-occupied home on a rare double lot on a lovely street. The first floor unit is completely updated throughout with hardwood flooring, fresh paint, updated bathroom, eat-in kitchen with custom maple cabinets, granite and newer stainless steel appliances. First floor also features a custom built-in with washer and dryer in the mudroom. The second floor unit boasts newer appliances, washer/dryer hook ups, updated kitchen and more. Both units have great front porches to relax, and a large back yard to enjoy. Most of the major mechanicals are updated and well-maintained. Truly nothing to do but move-in and enjoy all this great investment has to offer! Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Kitchen cabinetry
• New flooring
• Private full bath

Tags

• PRIVATE FULL BATH
• GORGEOUS GRANITE KITCHEN
• FLEXIBLE DINING AREA
• BEAUTIFULLY REMODELED
• NEW FLOORING
• KITCHEN CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Multifamily property with 2 units

Exterior

• Parking: 8 parking spaces total; Off-street paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Duplex; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Shed(s); Level, landscaped, cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes a kitchen
• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 3 bedrooms (all on the 1st floor); Unit 2: 3 bedrooms (all on the 2nd floor)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms total; Unit 1: 2 full baths (1st floor); Unit 2: 1 full bath (2nd floor)
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Forced air; Natural gas
• Interior features: Paddle fan; Built-in features; Ceramic tile bathrooms; Crown molding
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Upper-level laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $184/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $399k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in NY, #4,586 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Waterford-Halfmoon Union Free School District (rural): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #322 of 755 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Waterford-Halfmoon Elementary School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 402 students, 45% FRL); Waterford-Halfmoon Junior-Senior High School (math 62% / reading 44%, grade C-, #934 of 1,100 statewide, top 86%, 336 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,213/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 129% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $265k; list at $399k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $399,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.96%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,216
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 9th St	0.31mi	5/2.0	2,624 (-4%)	4mo	$263,200	$100	76
55 Saratoga Ave	0.53mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,744 (+1%)	11mo	$270,000	$98	60
15-17 4th St	0.63mi	5/3.0	2,548 (-6%)	6mo	$354,000	$139	51
108 1st Ave	0.45mi	5/2.0	2,496 (-8%)	19mo	$240,000	$96	49
2 4th St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,576 (-5%)	16mo	$243,999	$95	45
7 Museum Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,568 (-6%)	12mo	$169,900	$66	41
18 Fulton St	0.57mi	4/2.0 (-1)	3,005 (+10%)	18mo	$210,000	$70	36
41 Middle St	0.67mi	5/3.5	2,432 (-11%)	23mo	$209,000	$86	26
7 Grove St	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,314 (-15%)	15mo	$285,000	$123	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-40,970
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-4,657
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12188

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 15.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,213 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$701 /mo · $8,408/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$885
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,746

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $595	-5% $482	+0% $369	+5% $256	+10% $143
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $203	+0% $369	+5% $535	+10% $702
Rate	-1.0pp $570	-0.5pp $470	base $369	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $160

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$4,212
Total (2 units)			$4,213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $399,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-01
   listed $399,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,408 · $701/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,408 · $701/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$8,408
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,044
• − Management: −$4,044
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$1,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$455
• After-tax cash flow: $4,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterford-Halfmoon Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3630060
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,359
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #3943
• State rank: #322 of 755 in NY

Livability — Waterford

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4586

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 10,988
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,988
• Household income: $92,279
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 129.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 4% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.55%
• Current HPI: 316.5619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $399,000 Global MLS
• 2019-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-04 Sold (MLS) $265,000 Global MLS
• 2019-08-08 Pending — Global MLS
• 2019-07-18 Listed $269,900 Global MLS
• 2007-01-31 Sold (MLS) $200,000 Global MLS
• 2007-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-15 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2006-10-13 Listed $207,777 Global MLS
• 1993-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,408 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.