5312 & 5324 Kocot Rd

Deep River, MI 48659

$75,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,178/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $263/mo
• Annual: $3,150/yr
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.00%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.57%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Standish-Sterling Community Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #168 of 540 in MI (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Standishsterling Central Elementary School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #606 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 636 students, 67% FRL); Standishsterling Central Jrsr High School (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #154 of 713 statewide, top 25%, 694 students, 58% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Arenac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Arenac County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $65k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.