5312 & 5324 Kocot Rd · Deep River, MI 48659

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1971 2.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* * Attention Investors and Cash Buyers * * These two adjoining parcels are being sold together. Parcel #1 is 1.18 acres with a 1,764 sq ft classic farmhouse featuring 3 bedrooms and one bath. While the house is in need of interior renovation, the beautiful surroundings and country location make it a worthwhile investment for the right buyer. This property is being sold as-is. The condition of the furnace, plumbing and septic system are unknown as the house hasn't been occupied recently. Some original hardwood flooring remains. Large mature trees on this parcel. This has a shared well with the manufactured home on the adjoining property. Parcel #2 is 1.17 acres with a 2-bedroom, 1 bath 9

Key facts

• Large mature trees
• Interior renovation
• Steel roof

Tags

• CLASSIC FARMHOUSE
• INTERIOR RENOVATION
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• LARGE MATURE TREES
• STEEL ROOF
• MECHANICALS IN WORKING ORDER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 2.35 acres; Gravel road access

Exterior

• Utilities: Shared private well water; Septic system; LP/Propane gas
• Home design: Residential single wide manufactured home; 1 1/2 story; Built in 1971; Frontage on road (476')
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Michigan basement foundation
• Exterior features: Treed site; Road frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (first level) — 10 x 10; Bedroom 2 (second level) — 10 x 10; Bedroom 3 (second level) — approximately 10 width
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (total 1)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; LP/Propane gas fuel
• Interior features: Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Standish-Sterling Community Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #168 of 540 in MI (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Arenac County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Arenac County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.00%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $41,661
• Equity at exit: $50,529

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $108,971
• Equity at exit: $94,702

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48659

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,921/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $846

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $284	+0% $263	+5% $241	+10% $220
Rent	-10% $169	-5% $216	+0% $263	+5% $309	+10% $356
Rate	-1.0pp $300	-0.5pp $282	base $263	+0.5pp $243	+1.0pp $223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 2023-10-20
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 2015-03-15
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,921 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,921 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,921
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,131
• − Management: −$1,131
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$526
• After-tax cash flow: $2,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Standish-Sterling Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2632940
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,526
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4573
• State rank: #168 of 540 in MI

Livability — Deep River

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,740

Population outlook (Arenac County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,036 people
• By 2030: 13,189 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 11,309 · -19.4%
• By 2050: 9,616 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 6,776 · -51.7%
• By 2100: 4,997 · -64.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Arenac

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.6) · D 29.1% · R 69.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.9pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -40.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.6 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+4.9 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.71%
• Current HPI: 200.245
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+750.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,921 · +65.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.