104 Gull Harbor Dr

Brandywine Bay, NC 28570

$455,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1976 · Other · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,433/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,611
• Net cashflow: $7,110/mo
• Annual: $85,319/yr
• Cap rate: 25.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.97%
• DSCR: 3.98
• 1% rule: 2.73%
• Cash to close: $127,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $455k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($85k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $455k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($448k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $448k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morehead City Primary (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #205 of 1,410 statewide, top 16%, 545 students, 98% FRL); Morehead City Middle (math 53% / reading 63%, grade B, #59 of 475 statewide, top 13%, 482 students, 99% FRL); West Carteret High (math 82% / reading 71%, grade A-, #89 of 535 statewide, top 16%, 1,146 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $455k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $127k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $12,433/mo this rent would consume 212% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.