104 Gull Harbor Dr · Brandywine Bay, NC 28570

$455,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Other public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1976 0.50 ac lot $33/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Community boat ramp. Sold ''''AS IS'''', cash or conventional financing only. Time Limit Bidding period ends 05/15/2014 at 10:00:00 pm EST. The minimum starting bid is $74,000.00.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Recent updates
• French doors

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• RECENT UPDATES
• FRENCH DOORS
• LARGE DECK
• COMMUNITY MARINA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $400 (about $33.33/month); Community marina; Street lights in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car attached garage; Paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels / 2 stories; Entry level: 1st floor; Has a view
• Construction: Built with brick, brick veneer, fiber cement, and frame materials; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Corner lot; City street and state road frontage; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Electric heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Entrance foyer; Window coverings; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($85k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $455k).
• Recommended offer: $448k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morehead City Primary (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #205 of 1,410 statewide, top 16%, 545 students, 98% FRL); Morehead City Middle (math 53% / reading 63%, grade B, #59 of 475 statewide, top 13%, 482 students, 99% FRL); West Carteret High (math 82% / reading 71%, grade A-, #89 of 535 statewide, top 16%, 1,146 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,433/mo this rent would consume 212% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $127k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($448k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $455k implies a 224% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $448,175 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.97%
• DSCR: 3.98
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $379,025
• Equity at exit: $67,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.17×
• Total profit: $912,827
• Equity at exit: $39,340

Cash invested: $127,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,433 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,247/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,611
• Net cashflow: $7,110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,434

Max offer price $455,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,367	-5% $7,239	+0% $7,110	+5% $6,981	+10% $6,852
Rent	-10% $6,128	-5% $6,619	+0% $7,110	+5% $7,601	+10% $8,092
Rate	-1.0pp $7,339	-0.5pp $7,226	base $7,110	+0.5pp $6,992	+1.0pp $6,872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,750
• Closing costs: $13,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $455,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $455,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $455,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $455,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $455,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $455,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $455,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $455,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $455,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $469,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $469,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $469,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $469,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $469,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $469,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 448-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $469,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,247 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,731 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,484/yr (+$207/mo · 199.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $149,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,487
• − Property taxes: −$1,247
• − Insurance: −$2,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,936
• − Management: −$11,936
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$13,236
• Taxable income: $82,688
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19,845
• After-tax cash flow: $65,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Brandywine Bay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• City population: 22,197
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+56.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $469,000 Hive MLS
• 2014-10-22 Sold (MLS) $140,329 Hive MLS
• 2014-05-23 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2014-05-07 Listed $95,000 Hive MLS
• 2014-05-07 Listed $95,000 Hive MLS
• 2010-09-01 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2009-04-06 Listed $289,850 Hive MLS
• 2009-02-28 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2008-07-08 Listed $298,850 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,247 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.