3433 Upton Ave

Toledo, OH 43613

$106,900B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1924 · MultiFamily · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,727/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $604/mo
• Annual: $7,249/yr
• Cap rate: 13.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.22%
• DSCR: 2.08
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $29,932

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $107k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $302/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $739 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley Stemm Academy (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,527 of 1,584 statewide, top 98%, 279 students, 0% FRL); Start High School (math 11% / reading 33%, grade F, #672 of 781 statewide, top 86%, 1,242 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 72% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $107k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?