512 N Avenue A

Grandfalls, TX 79742

$34,999B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,106/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $669/mo
• Annual: $8,033/yr
• Cap rate: 29.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.97%
• DSCR: 4.65
• 1% rule: 3.16%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $669 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,364 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Grandfalls-Royalty ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,104 of 1,141 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Ward County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ward County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.