512 N Avenue A · Grandfalls, TX 79742

$34,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1952 9,365 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW LISTING! We just listed a property for sale in Grandfalls, Texas. It is located on a 9,374 sq. ft. lot! West Texas is becoming more and more popular each year with the career opportunities growing in number each day. Take advantage and invest in your future home. With easy access to TX-18, you will be able to travel between Fort Stockton, Midland and Odessa. This home is being sold AS IS but it has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• 9,365 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 148 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $669 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,364 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Grandfalls-Royalty ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,104 of 1,141 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Ward County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Ward County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.97%
• DSCR: 4.65
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $46,846
• Equity at exit: $15,737

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.92×
• Total profit: $107,010
• Equity at exit: $24,253

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79742

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$6 /mo · $72/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $669

Break-even live

Break-even rent $258

Max offer price $34,999

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,999 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,999 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,999 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,999 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,999 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $34,999 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,999 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,999 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,999 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $34,999 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $34,999 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,999 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,999 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,999 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-01-21
    listed $34,999 Active 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    NEW LISTING! We just listed a property for sale in Grandfalls, Texas. It is located on a 9,374 sq. ft. lot! West Texas is becoming more and more popular each year with the career opportunities growing in number each day. Take advantage and invest in your future home. With easy access to TX-18, you will be able to travel between Fort Stockton, Midland and Odessa. This home is being sold AS IS but it has a lot of potential. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

16. 2025-09-16
    historical
17. 2025-04-21
    status Active
18. 2025-03-13
    status Pending
19. 2024-09-16
    listed $33,949 Active
20. 2023-02-02
    soldstatus
21. 2022-11-01
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2022-10-06
    status Pending, Continue to Show
23. 2022-10-05
    status Pending
24. 2022-06-14
    listed $22,999 Active
25. 2018-09-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $72 · $6/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$568/yr (+$47/mo · 784.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,960
• − Property taxes: −$72
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,062
• − Management: −$1,062
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $7,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,901
• After-tax cash flow: $6,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grandfalls-Royalty ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821480
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,082
• Composite: 20.31/100
• National rank: #13816
• State rank: #1104 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Grandfalls

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1364
• US rank: #23479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grandfalls, TX
• Population (ZIP): 593

Population outlook (Ward County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,048 people
• By 2030: 15,329 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 18,112 · +28.9%
• By 2050: 21,301 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 29,199 · +107.9%
• By 2100: 33,968 · +141.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% White 30% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 62%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Ward

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.1) · D 16.7% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.1pp · 2024: -66.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.1 2020: R+61.0 2016: R+51.6 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+49.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+52.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $34,999 HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listed $33,949 HARMLS
• 2023-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-11-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-10-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-14 Listed $22,999 HARMLS
• 2018-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $72 · -76.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.