838 Cactus Ln

San Angelo, TX 76903

$97,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,453/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax + insurance: −$614
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $22/mo
• Annual: $269/yr
• Cap rate: 11.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.73%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $27,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($269/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $674 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• San Angelo ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #627 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $66k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Angelo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.