14519 Rain Tree Dr

Cove, TX 77523

$299,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,327/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$476
• HOA: −$61
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-271/mo
• Annual: $-3,257/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.