14519 Rain Tree Dr · Cove, TX 77523

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2022 6,599 sqft lot $198/sqft · at area comps Est $311k · at est. $61/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DR Horton, America's #1 Builder since 2002! This NEW CONSTRUCTION Baxtor Plan with Elevation T4, their NEWEST Modern design offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, covered patio and 2-car garage! This open concept home has a stunning kitchen which includes quartz countertops, 42" upgraded gray cabinets, stainless steel oven, dishwasher and microwave and a large breakfast bar. As you walk into the Primary Bathroom, you will see dual sinks, separate shower, garden tub and a large walk-in closet! Step outside to enjoy a large Covered Patio on an Oversized Lot with family and friends! (All information provided by builder). Located in Baytown's newest DR Horton Community known as Raintree this gorgeous development located off FM 565 and zoned to the highly-acclaimed Barber Hill schools! And check out that TAX RATE! Schedule your appointment today!! WASHER, DRYER AND FRIDGE included until 2/14/22.

Key facts

• 6,599 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Prestige Association Management C; Annual association fee of $730

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry on first level
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2022; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total — two 12x12 and 12x10 bedrooms plus a 16x16 primary bedroom, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,719 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,891
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -3.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14503 Sweet Water Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,516 (0%)	3mo	$280,000	$185	93
6810 Bens Lndg	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-0%)	2mo	$259,140	$171	77
635 Hidden Brook Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,516 (0%)	1mo	$282,000	$186	72
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+5%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	68
6830 Bens Lndg	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+4%)	1mo	$274,870	$174	66
218 San Marcos Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+14%)	1mo	$290,000	$168	63
411 Ruby Ford Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-7%)	1mo	$254,970	$181	61
5943 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-12%)	2mo	$225,000	$169	55
5739 Rainbow Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-9%)	1mo	$215,000	$156	55
6818 Bens Lndg	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	54
6922 Bens Lndg	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	50
6743 Camila St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+11%)	2mo	$284,000	$169	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-64,838
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-74,396
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,327 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,215/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,671

Max offer price $251,953

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	1d	1	0.30mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	43d	1	0.52mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	19d	1	0.58mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	24d	1	0.78mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	24d	1	1.15mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	22d	1	1.32mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	3d	1	1.33mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	15d	1	1.33mi
8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,450	$1.34	43d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $299,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $305,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $305,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $305,000 Active 618-char remark
16. 2022-03-21
    soldstatus Sold 913-char remark

    Show marketing remark (913 chars)

    DR Horton, America's #1 Builder since 2002! This NEW CONSTRUCTION Baxtor Plan with Elevation T4, their NEWEST Modern design offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, covered patio and 2-car garage! This open concept home has a stunning kitchen which includes quartz countertops, 42" upgraded gray cabinets, stainless steel oven, dishwasher and microwave and a large breakfast bar. As you walk into the Primary Bathroom, you will see dual sinks, separate shower, garden tub and a large walk-in closet! Step outside to enjoy a large Covered Patio on an Oversized Lot with family and friends! (All information provided by builder). Located in Baytown's newest DR Horton Community known as Raintree this gorgeous development located off FM 565 and zoned to the highly-acclaimed Barber Hill schools! And check out that TAX RATE! Schedule your appointment today!! WASHER, DRYER AND FRIDGE included until 2/14/22.

17. 2022-02-16
    status Pending, Continue to Show 913-char remark

    Show marketing remark (913 chars)

    DR Horton, America's #1 Builder since 2002! This NEW CONSTRUCTION Baxtor Plan with Elevation T4, their NEWEST Modern design offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, covered patio and 2-car garage! This open concept home has a stunning kitchen which includes quartz countertops, 42" upgraded gray cabinets, stainless steel oven, dishwasher and microwave and a large breakfast bar. As you walk into the Primary Bathroom, you will see dual sinks, separate shower, garden tub and a large walk-in closet! Step outside to enjoy a large Covered Patio on an Oversized Lot with family and friends! (All information provided by builder). Located in Baytown's newest DR Horton Community known as Raintree this gorgeous development located off FM 565 and zoned to the highly-acclaimed Barber Hill schools! And check out that TAX RATE! Schedule your appointment today!! WASHER, DRYER AND FRIDGE included until 2/14/22.

18. 2022-02-15
    price $294,415 913-char remark

    Show marketing remark (913 chars)

    DR Horton, America's #1 Builder since 2002! This NEW CONSTRUCTION Baxtor Plan with Elevation T4, their NEWEST Modern design offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, covered patio and 2-car garage! This open concept home has a stunning kitchen which includes quartz countertops, 42" upgraded gray cabinets, stainless steel oven, dishwasher and microwave and a large breakfast bar. As you walk into the Primary Bathroom, you will see dual sinks, separate shower, garden tub and a large walk-in closet! Step outside to enjoy a large Covered Patio on an Oversized Lot with family and friends! (All information provided by builder). Located in Baytown's newest DR Horton Community known as Raintree this gorgeous development located off FM 565 and zoned to the highly-acclaimed Barber Hill schools! And check out that TAX RATE! Schedule your appointment today!! WASHER, DRYER AND FRIDGE included until 2/14/22.

19. 2022-02-08
    price $288,415 913-char remark

    Show marketing remark (913 chars)

    DR Horton, America's #1 Builder since 2002! This NEW CONSTRUCTION Baxtor Plan with Elevation T4, their NEWEST Modern design offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, covered patio and 2-car garage! This open concept home has a stunning kitchen which includes quartz countertops, 42" upgraded gray cabinets, stainless steel oven, dishwasher and microwave and a large breakfast bar. As you walk into the Primary Bathroom, you will see dual sinks, separate shower, garden tub and a large walk-in closet! Step outside to enjoy a large Covered Patio on an Oversized Lot with family and friends! (All information provided by builder). Located in Baytown's newest DR Horton Community known as Raintree this gorgeous development located off FM 565 and zoned to the highly-acclaimed Barber Hill schools! And check out that TAX RATE! Schedule your appointment today!! WASHER, DRYER AND FRIDGE included until 2/14/22.

20. 2022-02-03
    price $284,415 913-char remark

    Show marketing remark (913 chars)

    DR Horton, America's #1 Builder since 2002! This NEW CONSTRUCTION Baxtor Plan with Elevation T4, their NEWEST Modern design offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, covered patio and 2-car garage! This open concept home has a stunning kitchen which includes quartz countertops, 42" upgraded gray cabinets, stainless steel oven, dishwasher and microwave and a large breakfast bar. As you walk into the Primary Bathroom, you will see dual sinks, separate shower, garden tub and a large walk-in closet! Step outside to enjoy a large Covered Patio on an Oversized Lot with family and friends! (All information provided by builder). Located in Baytown's newest DR Horton Community known as Raintree this gorgeous development located off FM 565 and zoned to the highly-acclaimed Barber Hill schools! And check out that TAX RATE! Schedule your appointment today!! WASHER, DRYER AND FRIDGE included until 2/14/22.

21. 2022-01-13
    price $281,415 913-char remark

    Show marketing remark (913 chars)

    DR Horton, America's #1 Builder since 2002! This NEW CONSTRUCTION Baxtor Plan with Elevation T4, their NEWEST Modern design offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, covered patio and 2-car garage! This open concept home has a stunning kitchen which includes quartz countertops, 42" upgraded gray cabinets, stainless steel oven, dishwasher and microwave and a large breakfast bar. As you walk into the Primary Bathroom, you will see dual sinks, separate shower, garden tub and a large walk-in closet! Step outside to enjoy a large Covered Patio on an Oversized Lot with family and friends! (All information provided by builder). Located in Baytown's newest DR Horton Community known as Raintree this gorgeous development located off FM 565 and zoned to the highly-acclaimed Barber Hill schools! And check out that TAX RATE! Schedule your appointment today!! WASHER, DRYER AND FRIDGE included until 2/14/22.

22. 2021-11-17
    listed $278,415 Active 913-char remark

    Show marketing remark (913 chars)

    DR Horton, America's #1 Builder since 2002! This NEW CONSTRUCTION Baxtor Plan with Elevation T4, their NEWEST Modern design offers 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, covered patio and 2-car garage! This open concept home has a stunning kitchen which includes quartz countertops, 42" upgraded gray cabinets, stainless steel oven, dishwasher and microwave and a large breakfast bar. As you walk into the Primary Bathroom, you will see dual sinks, separate shower, garden tub and a large walk-in closet! Step outside to enjoy a large Covered Patio on an Oversized Lot with family and friends! (All information provided by builder). Located in Baytown's newest DR Horton Community known as Raintree this gorgeous development located off FM 565 and zoned to the highly-acclaimed Barber Hill schools! And check out that TAX RATE! Schedule your appointment today!! WASHER, DRYER AND FRIDGE included until 2/14/22.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,215 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,488 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,273/yr (+$106/mo · 30.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,215
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,234
• − Management: −$2,234
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$8,512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,043
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2022-03-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-02-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-15 Price Changed $294,415 HARMLS
• 2022-02-08 Price Changed $288,415 HARMLS
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $284,415 HARMLS
• 2022-01-13 Price Changed $281,415 HARMLS
• 2021-11-17 Listed $278,415 HARMLS

Property tax history

+69.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,215 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.