12864 E Curly Neal Dr

Rincon Valley, AZ 85641

$314,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Pending · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,453/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax + insurance: −$523
• HOA: −$103
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-335/mo
• Annual: $-4,018/yr
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.57%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $87,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-335 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $245k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#160 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 655 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Rincon Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.