12864 E Curly Neal Dr · Rincon Valley, AZ 85641

$314,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2024 7,626 sqft lot $213/sqft · 9% below area Est $347k · 9% under $103/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 12864 E Curly Neal Dr, a home that boasts a range of modern features. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances, ensuring durability and style. The covered patio provides a perfect space for relaxation, while the low maintenance landscaping adds to the home's curb appeal. The fenced-in backyard ensures privacy and security. The new HVAC system guarantees year-round comfort. The fresh exterior paint gives the home a renewed look, complemented by new appliances and new flooring throughout the home. Partial flooring replacement has been done where necessary, and fresh interior paint brightens up the space. The new roof adds to the home's value and longevity. This property is a perfect blend of style, comfort, and convenience. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Fenced-in backyard
• Fresh exterior paint

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-335 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Rincon Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#160 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 655 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,336 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.57%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,940
• List price: $314,000
• Delta: -9.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12876 E Curly Neal Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	2mo	$344,790	$234	97
8279 S Larry Doby Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	5mo	$329,500	$224	94
8273 S Larry Doby Way	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	6mo	$321,000	$218	94
12888 E Curly Neal Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	3mo	$349,090	$209	68
7946 S Golden Bell Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-1%)	6mo	$310,000	$212	68
8042 S Golden Bell Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,383 (-6%)	2mo	$337,500	$244	68
8291 S Larry Doby Way	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	4mo	$359,990	$216	67
12846 E Curly Neal Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	6mo	$334,640	$201	67
8286 S Larry Doby Way	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	6mo	$338,890	$203	65
7818 S Golden Bell Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-1%)	6mo	$373,000	$255	62
13026 E Cembeline Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+13%)	2mo	$375,000	$225	59
7895 S Bonanza Park Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+13%)	2mo	$369,000	$221	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-67,020
• Equity at exit: $46,818

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-63,659
• Equity at exit: $27,149

Cash invested: $87,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85641

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,710/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$103
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,877

Max offer price $265,550

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,500
• Closing costs: $9,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13142 E Cembeline Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1859	$2,195	$1.18	3d	1	0.39mi
8042 S Golden Bell Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,895	$1.37	44d	1	0.41mi
13154 E Apex Mine Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1745	$3,200	$1.83	44d	1	0.62mi
7720 S Rocking K Ranch Loop Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1202	$2,705	$2.25	2d	1	0.85mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $103 · $1,236/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsecurity

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-23
   price $319,000 797-char remark

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Welcome to 12864 E Curly Neal Dr, a home that boasts a range of modern features. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances, ensuring durability and style. The covered patio provides a perfect space for relaxation, while the low maintenance landscaping adds to the home's curb appeal. The fenced-in backyard ensures privacy and security. The new HVAC system guarantees year-round comfort. The fresh exterior paint gives the home a renewed look, complemented by new appliances and new flooring throughout the home. Partial flooring replacement has been done where necessary, and fresh interior paint brightens up the space. The new roof adds to the home's value and longevity. This property is a perfect blend of style, comfort, and convenience. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with

2. 2026-04-02
   price $325,000 797-char remark

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Welcome to 12864 E Curly Neal Dr, a home that boasts a range of modern features. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances, ensuring durability and style. The covered patio provides a perfect space for relaxation, while the low maintenance landscaping adds to the home's curb appeal. The fenced-in backyard ensures privacy and security. The new HVAC system guarantees year-round comfort. The fresh exterior paint gives the home a renewed look, complemented by new appliances and new flooring throughout the home. Partial flooring replacement has been done where necessary, and fresh interior paint brightens up the space. The new roof adds to the home's value and longevity. This property is a perfect blend of style, comfort, and convenience. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with

3. 2026-03-05
   price $335,000 797-char remark

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Welcome to 12864 E Curly Neal Dr, a home that boasts a range of modern features. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances, ensuring durability and style. The covered patio provides a perfect space for relaxation, while the low maintenance landscaping adds to the home's curb appeal. The fenced-in backyard ensures privacy and security. The new HVAC system guarantees year-round comfort. The fresh exterior paint gives the home a renewed look, complemented by new appliances and new flooring throughout the home. Partial flooring replacement has been done where necessary, and fresh interior paint brightens up the space. The new roof adds to the home's value and longevity. This property is a perfect blend of style, comfort, and convenience. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with

4. 2026-02-17
   listed $345,000 Active 797-char remark

   Show marketing remark (797 chars)

   Welcome to 12864 E Curly Neal Dr, a home that boasts a range of modern features. The kitchen is equipped with all stainless steel appliances, ensuring durability and style. The covered patio provides a perfect space for relaxation, while the low maintenance landscaping adds to the home's curb appeal. The fenced-in backyard ensures privacy and security. The new HVAC system guarantees year-round comfort. The fresh exterior paint gives the home a renewed look, complemented by new appliances and new flooring throughout the home. Partial flooring replacement has been done where necessary, and fresh interior paint brightens up the space. The new roof adds to the home's value and longevity. This property is a perfect blend of style, comfort, and convenience. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with

5. 2026-02-13
   soldstatus $332,443
6. 2026-02-05
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-05
   historical
8. 2026-02-04
   price $341,440
9. 2026-01-28
   price $353,640
10. 2026-01-21
    soldstatus $728,280
11. 2026-01-15
    price $354,990
12. 2026-01-13
    listed $349,940 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,589
• − Property taxes: −$4,710
• − Insurance: −$1,570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − HOA: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$9,135
• Taxable loss: −$9,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,282
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rincon Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #18098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rincon Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,752
• Household income: $131,164
• Rent vs Own: 5.9% rent · 94.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.78%
• Current HPI: 250.1814
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $319,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $325,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $335,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-17 Listed $345,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $332,443 Public Records
• 2026-02-05 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-05 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $341,440 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $353,640 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $728,280 Public Records
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $354,990 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-13 Listed $349,940 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $513 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.