573 Hurricane Creek Rd

Hyden, KY 41749

$40,000B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 290 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,229/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $659/mo
• Annual: $7,912/yr
• Cap rate: 27.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.60%
• DSCR: 4.41
• 1% rule: 3.07%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $659 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#156 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Leslie County (rural): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #36 of 165 in KY (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hayes Lewis Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 124 students, 52% FRL); Leslie County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 472 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.
• Leslie County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.