573 Hurricane Creek Rd · Hyden, KY 41749

$40,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 290 Days on market

Built 1955 1.00 ac lot $29/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

**Charming Mountain Retreat with Endless Potential** Discover a hidden gem nestled in the serene mountains, where tranquility meets opportunity! This unique 1.5-story home, built in 1955, offers a blend of vintage charm and modern possibilities. With its quaint architecture and timeless character, it's the perfect canvas for your personal touch. Imagine sipping your morning coffee on the porch while listening to the gentle sounds of the creek just across the road. The property boasts a private setting that's perfect for those seeking an escape from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. Surrounded by nature, this home provides an opportunity to immerse yourself in the beauty of the great outdoors. Though the house needs some TLC, its solid structure and thoughtful layout create a fantastic foundation for renovations. Whether you're looking to restore it to its former glory or reimagine the space entirely, the potential is limitless. Let your creativity flow as you design the mountain retreat of your dreams. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own apiece of paradise in the mountains, where privacy and natural beauty await you! Contact us today to schedule your private showing.

Key facts

• Thoughtful layout
• Private setting
• Solid structure

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• SOLID STRUCTURE
• THOUGHTFUL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $659 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#156 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Leslie County (rural): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #36 of 165 in KY (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hayes Lewis Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 124 students, 52% FRL); Leslie County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 472 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leslie County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 290 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 290 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.60%
• DSCR: 4.41
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,921
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -75.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $36,148
• Equity at exit: $6,596

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.70×
• Total profit: $86,228
• Equity at exit: $4,553

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41749

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $359/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $659

Break-even live

Break-even rent $395

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $682	-5% $671	+0% $659	+5% $648	+10% $637
Rent	-10% $562	-5% $611	+0% $659	+5% $708	+10% $756
Rate	-1.0pp $680	-0.5pp $670	base $659	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $638

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 290 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 289 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 287 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 284 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 282 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 281 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 278 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 277 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 276 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 275 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 272 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 271 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 270 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 269 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 268 DOM
18. 2025-08-25
    historical
19. 2025-02-13
    price $50,000
20. 2024-11-14
    price $59,900
21. 2024-09-04
    listed $40,000 Active 1195-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1195 chars)

    **Charming Mountain Retreat with Endless Potential** Discover a hidden gem nestled in the serene mountains, where tranquility meets opportunity! This unique 1.5-story home, built in 1955, offers a blend of vintage charm and modern possibilities. With its quaint architecture and timeless character, it's the perfect canvas for your personal touch. Imagine sipping your morning coffee on the porch while listening to the gentle sounds of the creek just across the road. The property boasts a private setting that's perfect for those seeking an escape from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. Surrounded by nature, this home provides an opportunity to immerse yourself in the beauty of the great outdoors. Though the house needs some TLC, its solid structure and thoughtful layout create a fantastic foundation for renovations. Whether you're looking to restore it to its former glory or reimagine the space entirely, the potential is limitless. Let your creativity flow as you design the mountain retreat of your dreams. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own apiece of paradise in the mountains, where privacy and natural beauty await you! Contact us today to schedule your private showing.

22. 2024-09-02
    listed $67,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $359 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $359 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$359
• − Insurance: −$866
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $7,763
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,863
• After-tax cash flow: $6,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leslie County
• NCES district ID: 2103330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $29,367
• Composite: 32.9/100
• National rank: #5604
• State rank: #36 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hyden

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #7902

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,979

Population outlook (Leslie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,439 people
• By 2030: 8,711 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 7,328 · -22.4%
• By 2050: 6,134 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 4,231 · -55.2%
• By 2100: 3,178 · -66.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leslie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+80.9) · D 8.8% · R 89.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: -63.9pp · 2024: -80.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+80.9 2020: R+80.5 2016: R+80.6 2012: R+80.9 2008: R+63.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.65%
• Current HPI: 135.5932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-25.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-25 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $50,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $59,900 ImagineMLS
• 2024-09-04 Listed $40,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-09-02 Listed $67,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $359 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.