194 South Rd

Pawling, NY 12531

$990,000B+

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,768 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $30,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,192
• Tax + insurance: −$1,650
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,300
• Net cashflow: $16,858/mo
• Annual: $202,300/yr
• Cap rate: 26.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.98%
• DSCR: 4.25
• 1% rule: 3.03%
• Cash to close: $277,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $990k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17k ($202k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($30k rent vs $990k).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($901k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $901k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $106k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $99k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#107 in NY, #1,763 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Pawling Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #247 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $277k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$170k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.