194 South Rd · Pawling, NY 12531

$990,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,768 sqft · SingleFamily · 112 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 9.01 ac lot $263/sqft · 32% above area Est $748k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Currently being crafted by skilled local builders, this distinguished rocking chair porch Colonial sits gracefully on more than nine private acres, offering an exceptional blend of elegance, comfort, and modern design. Once complete, the home will be bathed in natural light, showcasing gleaming hardwood floors, 9 foot ceilings, and a sophisticated chef’s kitchen appointed with recessed lighting, granite countertops, and a large island that invites both culinary creativity and effortless gathering. The formal dining room provides a lovely setting for memorable celebrations and intimate dinner parties. Just beyond the kitchen, a maintenance free Trex deck extends the living space outdoors, connecting seamlessly to the enclosed side porch and yard. It’s an ideal retreat for al fresco dining, morning coffee, or simply savoring the quiet beauty of the changing seasons. The family room offers a warm, inviting ambiance centered around the soft glow of the gas fireplace—perfect for relaxed evenings and cozy gatherings. The finished walkout basement area adds versatility, featuring laminate flooring, nine foot ceilings, a full bath, and an energy efficient mini split system. Whether envisioned as a private office, fitness studio, media lounge, or place for guests, this space adapts effortlessly to your lifestyle. Upstairs, three well appointed bedrooms and a full bath accompany a serene primary suite designed as a personal sanctuary. A walk in closet, standalone soaking tub, large glass enclosed shower, and dual vanities create a spa like experience that elevates everyday living. Thoughtful amenities throughout the home include nine foot ceilings, hardwood floors, Anderson windows, central air, abundant recessed lighting, foam and batt insulation, a two car garage, paved driveway, and a bluestone walkway enhances the home’s design. The location offers the luxury of seclusion just minutes from the charming Village of Pawling, Metro North, major routes, shopping, restaurants, and the many cultural and natural treasures of the historic Hudson Valley. For those seeking a weekend escape or a year round haven, this soon to be completed Colonial presents a rare opportunity to own a beautifully designed home where privacy, elegance, and convenience meet.

Key facts

• Private acres
• Enclosed side porch
• Chef kitchen

Tags

• ROCKING CHAIR PORCH
• PRIVATE ACRES
• CHEF KITCHEN
• MAINTENANCE FREE TREX DECK
• ENCLOSED SIDE PORCH
• FINISHED WALKOUT BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $990k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17k ($202k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($30k rent vs $990k).
• Recommended offer: $901k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#107 in NY, #1,763 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Pawling Central School District (rural): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #247 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $106k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $99k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $277k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$170k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($901k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $900,900 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.98%
• DSCR: 4.25
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $748,039
• List price: $990,000
• Delta: 32.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 W Main St	0.13mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,766 (-0%)	5mo	$742,000	$197	85
33 Coulter Ave	0.37mi	4/1.5	3,731 (-1%)	22mo	$575,000	$154	55
32 Gristmill Ln	0.70mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,732 (-1%)	13mo	$607,000	$163	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $1,613,349
• Equity at exit: $891,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.1%
• Equity multiple: 15.10×
• Total profit: $3,907,584
• Equity at exit: $1,923,352

Cash invested: $277,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12531

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $30,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,192
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,238 /mo · $14,850/yr
• Insurance: −$412
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,300
• Net cashflow: $16,858

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,660

Max offer price $990,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $247,500
• Closing costs: $29,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Quaker Hill Rd Pawling, NY	4.0	3.5	4233	$30,000	$7.09	44d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $990,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $990,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $990,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $990,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $990,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $990,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $990,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $990,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $990,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $990,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $990,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $990,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $990,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $990,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    listed $990,000 Active 2304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2304 chars)

    Currently being crafted by skilled local builders, this distinguished rocking chair porch Colonial sits gracefully on more than nine private acres, offering an exceptional blend of elegance, comfort, and modern design. Once complete, the home will be bathed in natural light, showcasing gleaming hardwood floors, 9 foot ceilings, and a sophisticated chef’s kitchen appointed with recessed lighting, granite countertops, and a large island that invites both culinary creativity and effortless gathering. The formal dining room provides a lovely setting for memorable celebrations and intimate dinner parties. Just beyond the kitchen, a maintenance free Trex deck extends the living space outdoors, connecting seamlessly to the enclosed side porch and yard. It’s an ideal retreat for al fresco dining, morning coffee, or simply savoring the quiet beauty of the changing seasons. The family room offers a warm, inviting ambiance centered around the soft glow of the gas fireplace—perfect for relaxed evenings and cozy gatherings. The finished walkout basement area adds versatility, featuring laminate flooring, nine foot ceilings, a full bath, and an energy efficient mini split system. Whether envisioned as a private office, fitness studio, media lounge, or place for guests, this space adapts effortlessly to your lifestyle. Upstairs, three well appointed bedrooms and a full bath accompany a serene primary suite designed as a personal sanctuary. A walk in closet, standalone soaking tub, large glass enclosed shower, and dual vanities create a spa like experience that elevates everyday living. Thoughtful amenities throughout the home include nine foot ceilings, hardwood floors, Anderson windows, central air, abundant recessed lighting, foam and batt insulation, a two car garage, paved driveway, and a bluestone walkway enhances the home’s design. The location offers the luxury of seclusion just minutes from the charming Village of Pawling, Metro North, major routes, shopping, restaurants, and the many cultural and natural treasures of the historic Hudson Valley. For those seeking a weekend escape or a year round haven, this soon to be completed Colonial presents a rare opportunity to own a beautifully designed home where privacy, elegance, and convenience meet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $360,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,455
• − Property taxes: −$14,850
• − Insurance: −$4,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$28,800
• − Management: −$28,800
• − Depreciation: −$28,800
• Taxable income: $198,345
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$47,603
• After-tax cash flow: $154,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a spacious layout. It offers a great blend of elegance and comfort, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's aesthetic and appeal to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's aesthetic and appeal to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's aesthetic and appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's aesthetic and appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pawling Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,355
• Composite: 50.6/100
• National rank: #1844
• State rank: #247 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pawling

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #1763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pawling, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,316

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.05%
• Current HPI: 244.8424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $990,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid