1021 Embrun Ct

Poinciana, FL 34759

$220,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,285 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,910/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$767
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-511/mo
• Annual: $-6,134/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-511 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (41.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (13.2% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $130k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Chestnut Elementary School For Science And Engineering (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 736 students, 62% FRL); Liberty High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #554 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 1,613 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Osceola average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.