830 Middlesex Rd

Essex, MD 21221

$140,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · Built 1939 · Townhouse · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$274
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $549/mo
• Annual: $6,583/yr
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.79%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in MD, #2,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $140k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.8% in Essex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.