Whitetail Plan

Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$236,990D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,954 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,258/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,470
• Tax + insurance: −$467
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-153/mo
• Annual: $-1,836/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $78,484

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (4.7% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Kitchen cabinets — Significant wear and tear, likely to be replaced.
• Moderate: Bathroom tile — Discoloration and wear, likely to be replaced.
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Minor cracks and discoloration, likely to be repainted or replaced.
• Moderate: Interior walls — Chipped paint, likely to be repainted.
• Moderate: Windows — Worn frames, likely to be replaced or repaired.
• Moderate: HVAC unit — Appears old, likely to be replaced or serviced.