Whitetail Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$236,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,954 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price: $249,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan: Whitetail); New construction
• Exterior features: Located at 15407 Glinton Farm Ln, Conroe TX 77303

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Whitetail); Open living area (1,954 living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $236,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $280,299.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $237k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,832 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,299
• List price: $236,990
• Delta: -15.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4048 N Oak Forest Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-3%)	10mo	$229,900	$121	57
17421 Fm 1484 Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (+12%)	14mo	$429,000	$196	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-61,750
• Equity at exit: $41,793

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-91,758
• Equity at exit: $24,235

Cash invested: $78,484 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,470
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,204/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,452

Max offer price $258,158

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,075
• Closing costs: $8,409
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,992	$1.11	3d	1	1.44mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$2,135	$1.33	1d	15	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $236,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $236,990 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,990 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,990 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,990 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $249,990 Active 415-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,701
• − Property taxes: −$4,204
• − Insurance: −$1,401
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − Depreciation: −$8,154
• Taxable loss: −$6,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,607
• After-tax cash flow: $-229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This two-story home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include painting, HVAC replacement, and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Significant wear and tear, likely to be replaced.
• Moderate Bathroom tile — Discoloration and wear, likely to be replaced.
• Moderate Exterior siding — Minor cracks and discoloration, likely to be repainted or replaced.
• Moderate Interior walls — Chipped paint, likely to be repainted.
• Moderate Windows — Worn frames, likely to be replaced or repaired.
• Moderate HVAC unit — Appears old, likely to be replaced or serviced.
• Moderate Landscaping — Overgrown areas, likely to be landscaped and improved.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC system can significantly improve comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Fresh cabinets and tile can improve functionality and aesthetics, making the home more attractive to buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Significant wear and tear, likely to be replaced.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom tile · Discoloration and wear, likely to be replaced.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior siding · Minor cracks and discoloration, likely to be repainted or replaced.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior walls · Chipped paint, likely to be repainted.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Windows · Worn frames, likely to be replaced or repaired.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
HVAC unit · Appears old, likely to be replaced or serviced.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Overgrown areas, likely to be landscaped and improved.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$21,000–105,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC system can significantly improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Fresh cabinets and tile can improve functionality and aesthetics, making the home more attractive to buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B